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The bank's liquidity is the bank's ability to ensure the full and timely fulfillment of its financial obligations. Excess liquidity

The level of banking liquidity directly affects the stability of the entire banking system, one of the main tasks of which is the implementation of settlement functions, making payments between various economic entities.

The low level of bank liquidity limits the solvency of credit institutions up to the complete cessation of payment systems, which can paralyze the functioning of the economy.

Types of bank liquidity

The sources are as follows types of liquidity:

accumulated (cash, assets)
purchased (interbank loans and possible loans from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation).

By urgency bank liquidity is:

instant,
short term
medium term
long term.

Bank liquidity management means establishing an optimal ratio between certain types of assets and liabilities, which is determined by liquidity indicators and banking risks and allows the financial institution to fulfill its obligations to creditors in a timely manner and in full.

Bank liquidity management includes a whole range of measures: development of the bank's financial policy; choice of methods for assessing and analyzing liquidity regulation; procedure for making current and strategic decisions; formation of information databases, etc. At the same time, the purpose of bank liquidity management is to ensure the ability of this bank to timely and fully fulfill its monetary and other obligations arising from transactions using financial instruments.

Bank liquidity assessment

A bank's liquidity is calculated based on balance sheet data and an estimate of cash flows. The assessment of the bank's liquidity depends on many factors that can be conditionally divided into internal and external.

Internals include:

the presence of significant own funds
quality and quantity of assets and deposits
certain dependence on external sources and factors
conjugation of assets and liabilities by terms.

External factors include:

political and economic situation in the country and the world
development of the securities market and the interbank market
organization of the refinancing system
effectiveness of supervisory functions.

The liquidity of a bank can be assessed using the coefficient method, which is the simplest. The coefficient method for analyzing a bank's liquidity includes:

identification and determination of the composition, frequency of calculation and limit indicators of liquidity
analysis and assessment of the state of liquidity indicators based on: comparison of actual values with normative, limiting ones; analysis of the dynamics of the actual values of indicators; factor analysis of changes in actual values
determination of ways to eliminate inconsistencies established on the basis of the analysis.

In principle, the composition of indicators and methods for assessing liquidity are determined by each bank, based on specific factors affecting the liquidity of a particular financial institution.

Degrees of liquidity and profitability of bank assets

By degree of liquidity bank assets can be divided into several groups:

first-class liquid assets are cash on hand or on correspondent accounts, government securities
highly liquid assets of the bank are interbank loans, corporate securities held for sale
low-liquid assets of the bank are short-term and sometimes long-term loans, factoring operations, investment securities, leasing operations
illiquid assets are overdue loans, some securities, furniture, appliances and facilities.

According to the degree of profitability, the bank's assets are divided into two groups: income-generating and non-revenue-producing. The second group can safely include illiquid assets and some low-liquid assets. Accordingly, the less liquid the resources, the higher the risk and the lower the profitability of the financial institution.

Qualitative and quantitative balance of the inflow and outflow of funds of the credit potential is the main factor in maintaining the bank's liquidity.

Insufficient and excess liquidity of the bank

Insufficient liquidity of the bank can cause a shortage of means of payment, which must be covered by increased costs, thereby causing a decrease in the profitability, profitability and profitability of the bank. Insufficient liquidity leads to bank insolvency.

The lack of liquidity can be corrected by the flow of government resources into the banking system. It is much more difficult to get rid of excess liquidity.

Excess liquidity is money that the bank has, but does not want to place on the market due to significant risks of default. The Russian banking system today, in general, has excess liquidity.

the conclusion is that the bank's liquidity is a qualitative characteristic of the bank's activities, due to many factors that are in constant change and interrelation.

money multiplier

The money multiplier is the value of the multiplier (coefficient) by which the amount of money in circulation increases as a result of operations in the monetary market. The money multiplier means how many times the effectiveness of the monetary base increases. Its value is the reciprocal of the required reserve ratio, as well as the ratio between cash and deposits. This indicates that with an increase in the reserve ratio or with a higher ratio of cash to deposits, the value of the money multiplier will decrease.

The effect of the multiplier is constantly reproduced because the lost reserves for one bank create free credit resources of another commercial bank, so the banking system as a whole does not lose them, but creates excess reserves. As a result, this ability of the banking system does not always exist and is not unlimited. It is limited by the need for commercial banks to form required reserves, the amount of which is determined by the reserve ratio, regulated by law.

The need to form required reserves makes only free bank reserves a source of lending, that is, the total amount of funds of commercial banks that is currently at the disposal of a commercial bank and can be used by them for active operations. The larger the free reserve, the higher the creditworthiness of the bank.

With regard to changing reserve requirements, two opposing proposals were made. In one case, it is proposed to completely abandon the mandatory reserve, and in the second - to set the required reserve ratio at the level of 100% of the amount of deposits. Can a mandatory reservation be cancelled? The central banks of most countries are lowering their reserve requirements, and in some of them it has been completely abolished. If you only knew a simple deposit multiplier, you might think that dropping the reserve requirement would lead to an infinite supply of money. However, according to a more complex model of the money supply, such arguments turn out to be incorrect. Banks are still looking to hold reserves to protect themselves from deposit runs, and there is also a demand for cash. These factors limit the money supply. The reason why reserve requirement makes sense to keep is that its existence ensures greater stability of the money multiplier and, therefore, better control over the money supply. In view of the fact that there are not very many empirical data confirming or refuting the expediency of this kind of reform, the question of it still remains open.

bank money

Bank money is also inferior tokens of value, which are issued by banks on the basis of lending to the real economy, due to which their release is closely connected with the needs of turnover, their withdrawal from circulation and the maintenance of a stable value are ensured. This is their fundamental difference and advantage over paper money.
With the development of bank credit and banking in general, banks began to issue their obligations instead of commercial bills - banknotes, which gradually turned into a universal means of payment and purchase and became an independent type of credit money - bank money. Subsequently, when banks began to widely attract banknotes from customers for deposits, a second form of bank money arose - deposit money.
A banknote in the most general interpretation is a simple issuing bank.

The characteristic features of the "classic" banknote are:
1) its issuance by an issuing bank in exchange for commercial bills of exchange;
2) mandatory exchange for gold at the first request of the owners;
3) double security: gold (gold reserves of the bank) and commodity (commercial bills that were in the bank's portfolio).
Thanks to these features, the banknote differed significantly from the commercial bill. Banknotes, unlike bills of exchange, are perpetual obligations that are not associated with specific trading operations. They can be issued in any denominations and be in circulation for any period, which makes it possible to pay them on all possible issues. These advantages provided the banknote with a special quality - a general turnover, which the bill did not have.
The double security of the "classic" banknote guaranteed its reliability, constant value, normal circulation and high elasticity of circulation. Through the provision of commercial bills, self-regulation of the circulation of banknotes was achieved. By issuing loans secured or discounting bills, the bank increased the number of banknotes in circulation, and when paying bills, banknotes were returned to the bank, which ensured the urgency of commercial bills.
The issuance of bills, in close connection with trade operations, ensured the consistency of the issuance of banknotes with the real needs of circulation - as these needs grew, the issue of banknotes increased, and vice versa. However, the issuance of banknotes against commercial bills did not always ensure automatic adaptation to the needs of circulation. This was due to a number of circumstances: taking into account financial bills, including treasury bills, a decrease in prices for goods and an acceleration in the circulation of banknotes, as a result of which the need for money decreased before the maturity of the bills, etc. In all these cases, there was a threat of the appearance of excess banknotes and their depreciation. The free exchange of banknotes for gold could prevent this: excess banknotes were presented to banks for exchange for gold.

The mechanism of self-regulation of banknote circulation through the provision of their issue with commercial bills has not lost its significance. However, his action has changed significantly. Bank loans under commercial bills began to be issued mainly in deposit, and not in banknote form. Therefore, issuing banks through this mechanism regulate the amount of deposit money in circulation, indirectly influencing the circulation of banknotes.

Deposit money

Deposit money is a kind of bank money that exists in the form of certain amounts recorded on the accounts of economic entities in banks. They do not have a material expression and are used for non-cash payments. Their movement is carried out on bank accounts and does not go beyond the banking system. And they are set in motion with the help of technical instruments - checks, payment orders, plastic cards, etc.

The successful functioning of deposit money is possible only for a high level of development of banking, when each subject of money circulation can freely put his money in the bank, take it from there, quickly transfer it to any point in the market and he is guaranteed their full preservation. Under these conditions, the owner of money in a bank account can instruct the latter to transfer the entire amount or part of it to his counterparty and thus pay off the debt. Moving through bank accounts, deposit money successfully performs the functions of a purchasing and means of payment, and then is included in the general money circulation.

Electronic money

Electronic money is a kind of deposit money, when the transfer of funds on bank accounts is carried out automatically using computer systems at the direct disposal of current account holders. This form organically combines all the advantages of deposit and cash forms of money: there is no need to transfer or transport large amounts of cash; significant cost savings are achieved for their manufacture, storage, recalculation, transportation, etc.; each payer has the opportunity to instantly make a payment, having previously checked all its conditions and made the appropriate calculations, as in cash payments.
The carrier of electronic money is a plastic card - a nominal monetary document that is issued by the bank to the owner of the current account and gives him the opportunity to pay for his purchases through computer networks and pay off debts by transferring money through the account without using cash. The introduction of a plastic card in the settlement and payment practice has significantly expanded the scope of the operation of deposit money, included mass payments from the population, accelerated the circulation of money, created greater convenience for payers, and reduced circulation costs. All this provided deposit money with a new quality, which was reflected in the new name - "electronic money".

Liquidity of a commercial bank is the ability to timely and without loss fulfill their obligations to clients (depositors, creditors, investors).

Bank obligations can be real and conditional.

Real obligations are reflected in the bank's balance sheet in the form of demand deposits, time deposits, attracted interbank resources, creditors' funds. Potential or off-balance sheet liabilities expressed in guarantees issued by the bank, open credit lines to customers, etc.

Real obligations - these are the liabilities that are reflected in the respective balance accounts in the form of deposits, attracted interbank loans, issued securities (bills, deposit and savings certificates).

Contingent Liabilities - These are liabilities of the bank reflected in off-balance sheet accounts. These are obligations that may arise under certain circumstances, such as guarantees, guarantees issued by a bank.

According to the terminology established by IFRS, real and contingent liabilities are monetary and other liabilities arising from transactions using financial instruments, i.e. any contract that gives rise to a monetary asset of one enterprise and a monetary liability or capital instrument of another enterprise.

Bank liquidity factors

Factors that determine the liquidity of a commercial bank can be internal and external.

Internal factors include:

the quality of the bank's assets;
the quality of funds raised;
conjugation of assets and liabilities by terms;
management and image of the bank.

Strong capital base means the presence of a significant absolute value of equity capital. The basis of equity capital is the statutory fund and other funds of the bank intended for various purposes, including to ensure the financial stability of the bank. The larger the bank's equity capital, the higher its liquidity.

Another factor affecting the bank's liquidity is the quality of its assets. When calculating the ratios, the assets of a commercial bank are divided into five risk groups, taking into account the degree of risk of investing funds and, accordingly, the possible loss of part of the value of these funds in an unfavorable situation. At the same time, individual categories of assets included in each of the five groups are assigned an appropriate risk adjustment factor (from 0 to 100%), which shows what part of the value of this category of assets can be lost, or otherwise, to what extent it is safe to invest in gu or another category of the bank's assets.

External factors include:

general political and economic situation in the country;
development of the securities market and the interbank market;
the system of refinancing by the Bank of Russia of commercial banks;
effectiveness of the supervisory functions of the Bank of Russia.

The general political and economic situation in the country creates the prerequisites for the development of banking operations and the successful functioning of the banking system, ensures the stability of the economic basis for the activities of banks, and strengthens the confidence of domestic and foreign investors in banks. Without these conditions, banks are not able to create a stable deposit base, achieve profitability of operations, improve the management system, and improve the quality of assets.

The development of the securities market makes it possible to provide an optimal system of liquid funds without loss of profitability, since the fastest way to convert bank assets into cash in most foreign countries is associated with the functioning of the stock market.

The development of the interbank market contributes to the redistribution between banks of temporarily free cash resources, maintaining the liquidity of commercial banks. The system of refinancing of commercial banks by the Bank of Russia is also connected with this factor. In this case, the Bank of Russia becomes the source of replenishment of resources, with the help of which the liquidity of a commercial bank is maintained.

The effectiveness of the supervisory functions of the Bank of Russia determines the degree of interaction between the state supervisory authority and commercial banks in terms of liquidity management.

Bank liquidity management

The liquidity of the bank is closely related to the liquidity of the balance sheet. In order to maintain the liquidity of the balance sheet, the bank is obliged to constantly maintain the necessary and sufficient level of funds on correspondent accounts, cash on hand, marketable assets, i.e. manage liquidity.

The main elements of liquidity management are:

analysis of the state of instant, current and long-term liquidity;
drawing up a short-term liquidity forecast;
conducting liquidity analysis and using developments that are negative for the bank (market conditions, position of borrowers and creditors);
determination of the bank's need for liquidity;
determination of liquidity excess/shortage and its maximum allowable values;
assessment of the impact on the state of liquidity of operations in foreign currency;
determination of limit values of liquidity ratios for each currency and for all currencies in general.

Assessing the bank's liquidity is one of the most difficult tasks, allowing you to get an answer to the most important question: is the bank able to meet its obligations. The bank's ability to meet its obligations is influenced by the characteristics of the state and changes in the resource base, the return of assets, the financial result of the activity, the size of the bank's own funds (capital), as well as the quality of the bank's management, management, which at certain moments can play and play a decisive role.

To control the state of the bank's liquidity, three liquidity ratios (instant, current and long-term) have been established. They are defined as the ratio between assets and liabilities, taking into account the terms, amounts and types of assets, as well as other factors.

Instant liquidity ratio (N2) regulates (limits) the risk of loss of liquidity by the bank within one business day and determines the minimum ratio of the amount of the bank's highly liquid assets to the amount of the bank's liabilities on demand accounts.

The standard is calculated by the formula

L a.m - highly liquid assets, i.e. financial assets that are to be received within the next day and can be immediately claimed by the bank and, if necessary, sold by the bank in order to immediately receive funds, including funds on correspondent accounts of the bank with the Bank of Russia, in banks of countries from among the “group of developed countries", cash desk of the bank. The indicator L a.m is calculated as the sum of the balances on the cash accounts, correspondent accounts, receipts for the due dates;
About w.m- obligations (liabilities) on demand, for which the depositor or creditor may demand their immediate repayment. The Ovm indicator is calculated as the sum of balances on demand accounts, with certain adjustments. Calculations of L a.m. and O v.m. are made in accordance with the instructions of the Bank of Russia. The minimum allowable value of the standard H2 set at 15%.

Bank's current liquidity ratio (NZ) limits the risk of liquidity loss by the bank within 30 calendar days closest to the date of calculation of the standard and determines the minimum ratio of the amount of the bank's liquid assets to the amount of the bank's liabilities on demand accounts and for a period of up to 30 calendar days.

The current liquidity ratio (N3) is calculated by the formula

L a.t— liquid assets, i.e. financial assets that must be received by the bank or may be claimed within the next 30 calendar days in order to receive funds within the specified time frame. The indicator L a.m is calculated as the sum of highly liquid assets (the indicator L a.m) and balances on certain balance accounts;
About w.t- obligations (liabilities) on demand, for which a depositor or creditor may submit a demand for their immediate repayment, and bank obligations to creditors (depositors) due within the next 30 calendar days. The W.t. indicator is calculated as the sum of balances on certain balance accounts.

Calculations of L a.t and O v.t are made in accordance with the instructions of the Bank of Russia. The minimum allowable value of the H3 standard is set at 50%.

Highly liquid and liquid assets include only those financial assets of the bank that, in accordance with the regulatory documents of the Bank of Russia, belong to the first category of quality (1st risk group) and the second category of quality (2nd risk group). In addition to the above assets, the calculation of indicators L a.m and L a.t includes balances on balance accounts for which there are no requirements for the formation of reserves, if the assets on the corresponding balance accounts are planned by the bank to be received within 30 next calendar days. days in a form that allows them to be classified as highly liquid and liquid assets.

Long-term liquidity ratio(N4) regulates (limits) the risk of loss of liquidity by the bank as a result of placing funds in long-term assets and determines the maximum allowable ratio of the bank's credit claims with the remaining maturity to the maturity date of more than 365 or 366 calendar days, to the bank's own funds (capital) and liabilities ( liabilities) with the remaining term to the maturity date exceeding 365 or 366 calendar days. The bank's long-term liquidity ratio (N4) is calculated using the formula

KR D - credit claims with a remaining term to the maturity date of more than 365 or 366 calendar days, as well as extended loans;
K is the capital of the bank;
OD - obligations (liabilities) of the bank on loans and deposits received by the bank, as well as on the bank's debt obligations circulating on the market with a remaining maturity of more than 365 or 366 calendar days. They are determined by the bank itself on the basis of primary documents.

The maximum allowable value of the H4 standard is set at 120%.

To assess the liquidity of a bank, in addition to liquidity standards, you can also use a system of indicators that, in combination, allow you to assess the state of the bank's liquidity both at a given point in time and in the medium term.

1. Settlement documents not paid on time due to lack of funds in the bank's correspondent accounts.

Balances of off-balance accounts 90903, 90904.

The presence of non-payments reflected in these accounts means that the bank has problems with making payments and there are delays in customer payments. If the balances on these accounts tend to grow for a long time, then the bank is insolvent and illiquid.

2. The indicator reflects the level of business activity of the bank. It represents the ratio of turnover on correspondent accounts and the bank's cash desk to the net balance asset:

K2\u003d Turnover on the loan of correspondent accounts and cash desks / Net balance asset

This indicator allows assessing the overall level of the bank's business activity and the impact of the risks taken by the bank on its sustainable functioning. If the indicator has a pronounced downward trend, this may indicate a reduction in bank operations and even curtailment of its activities.

The reasons for this state may be the low quality of part of the assets (primarily the loan portfolio), the bank's problems with making customer payments. Actively operating banks have a business activity index above 1.0.

3. The ratio of the net and liquid position of the bank allows you to assess the extent to which the bank attracts loans in the interbank market to cover the liquidity deficit:

K3= Funds on correspondent nostro accounts and on hand / Short-term interbank loans and credits of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

If , this indicates that the bank covers the liquidity deficit through loans in the interbank market. The systematic use of these short-term resources to cover a long, long-term gap speaks of liquidity problems. In addition, banks analyze counterparties, and access to the interbank market may be terminated for such a bank, then the potential risk of loss of liquidity is transformed into a very real insolvency.

4. The coefficient of the current balance of assets and liabilities of the bank:

K4= Claims (assets) for up to 30 days / Liabilities (liabilities) for up to 30 days

Using the current balance ratio, you can assess the possibility of problems with making payments. If the indicator consistently exceeds 1.0, the probability of a liquidity shortage is practically minimal. If the value of the indicator is consistently below 0.6-0.7 and tends to decrease, then this is a sign of a possible liquidity shortage.

The medium-term balance ratio, which is similar in meaning, allows us to assess the possibility of liquidity problems in the future:

K5= Claims (assets) for up to 180 days / Liabilities (liabilities) for up to 180 days

The considered liquidity ratios make it possible to manage the liquidity of a credit institution both for a certain date and for the future. In addition to the coefficient method for measuring liquidity, Russian practice uses a cash flow management mechanism that reflects the movement of not only assets and liabilities, but also off-balance sheet operations of a credit institution.

According to the rules of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, coercive measures of influence on a credit institution can be applied in the event of a violation of the standard for a total of six or more days within any 30 consecutive business days in a row. However, quite often banks have a little more time than five days to correct the situation. Conventionally, violations by terms can be divided into three categories: up to five days - short-term; from 5 to 10 days - medium-term, when there is not a very high probability of applying a sanction from the Central Bank; long-term violation - more than 10 days.

In order to clarify the situation with violations of the standards, experts analyzed violations of the norms H1 (capital adequacy), H2 (instant liquidity), H3 (current liquidity), H4 (long-term liquidity) over the past year and a half, from the beginning of 2011 to May 1, 2012 . The results of the study showed that in just the designated period, the standards were violated relatively infrequently. 49 violators were identified, 16 of which had their licenses revoked.

As an important conclusion of the study, it can be noted that absolutely all 11 banks that violated more than one standard at the same time lost their licenses to carry out operations.

It looks positive that there are no large, backbone banks among the violators. The largest credit institutions that committed violations of the standards were GLOBEXBANK, which ranks 30th in terms of assets, SME Bank - 46th place and NOVIKOMBANK - 51st place. These rather large banks experienced short-term violations of one of the regulations, which, as a rule, were due to “technical” reasons, and not to financial problems.

During the study period, only one bank distinguished itself by violating all four of the most important standards. This bank turned out to be Ulyanovsk PV-Bank, which lost its license on April 13, 2012. At the same time, two banks violated three standards at the same time. Multibank and the International Commercial and Industrial Bank committed simultaneous violations of norms H1, H2, H3 and H1, H3, H4, respectively. It is worth noting that both credit institutions, which violated the three standards, reflected on the balance sheet the actually missing securities and did not create adequate reserves for possible losses, which was revealed during the massive checks of the Central Bank for the involvement of banks in the "schemes" of Matvey Urin. As a result, Multibank and the International Commercial and Industrial Bank lost their licenses in the spring of 2011.

If the simultaneous violation of several standards led to the revocation of a license in 100% of cases, then if only one standard was not complied with for a short time, the probability of losing a license was much lower. As statistics show, in case of violation of the instant liquidity ratio, the probability of losing the right to conduct banking activities is 50%. Three out of six banks that violated this standard lost their licenses.

Failure to comply with the current liquidity ratio led to the revocation of the license of only one bank out of 20, and thus, the probability of license revocation due to violation of the H3 ratio is only 5%.

In turn, the long-term liquidity ratio (N4) was violated by two banks, and at the same time, none of them had their license revoked due to these violations. Thus, of the three liquidity ratios, it is much more important for banks to control the state of the instant liquidity ratio, since its violation is more likely to lead to license revocation.

Of the ten banks that demonstrated violations of the capital adequacy ratio, only one had its license revoked. UIK-BANK lost the right to conduct banking activities on October 31, 2011, which was the result of the Central Bank's failure to meet the capital adequacy requirement for 70 days (41 consecutive days) in March-June 2011. Violations of the remaining 9 banks were much shorter in time. Most of the violations under this standard were registered in the first half of 2011, and later disappeared. At the same time, with the current trend of asset growth, which significantly outpaces the growth of equity capital, the number of banks that do not meet the requirements of the Central Bank for adequacy may increase significantly in the medium term.

The downward trend in the liquidity situation in the Russian banking system, which began in August 2011, affected both the number of violators of mandatory standards and the number of revocations of banking licenses due to chronic violations of H2 and H3 standards. If in the first eight months of 2011 only two credit institutions - RUSICH CENTER BANK and RATIBOR-BANK - were deprived of their licenses for this reason, then in the period from September 2011 to May 2012 there were already nine of them, of which five simultaneously violated the instant and current liquidity. Thus, the liquidity crisis, which has been developing in the banking system in a sluggish mode since the second half of 2011, is gathering its "harvest" of bankrupt banks.

In case of further growth of the liquidity deficit in the country's banking sector, which is quite likely against the backdrop of the crisis in the global and Russian economies, the number of credit institutions deprived of a license due to non-compliance with the Central Bank's standards will most likely grow. Smaller banks outside the top 200 by assets are most likely to be in trouble, as large banks tend to be well positioned to expand their resource base, reducing liquidity risks.

All banks that had their licenses revoked due to violations of mandatory standards committed significant violations. At the same time, credit institutions that allowed minor violations of liquidity or sufficiency even for long periods of time were able to continue their activities. Thus, not only the very fact of the violation and its duration in time is important, but also the deviation from the established minimum value.

On August 30, during the weekly deposit auction of the Central Bank, banks placed 220.8 billion rubles. excess liquidity at 10.41% per annum with an established limit of 280 billion rubles. The auction was attended by 76 credit institutions from 35 regions of the country. The previous auction took place on 9 August. Within its framework, the Central Bank attracted 100 billion rubles from banks. The weighted average rate on attraction was 10.22%. 62 banks participated in the auction, and their offers exceeded the limit of the Central Bank (100 billion rubles) by almost two times, amounting to 187 billion rubles.

The need to hold deposit auctions, according to a press release from the Bank of Russia, is due to the inflow of liquidity into the banking sector through the budget channel and the need to support short-term money market rates near the key rate of the Bank of Russia.

The Central Bank expects a transition from a shortage of liquidity in the banking system to its stable surplus during the year. According to the Central Bank estimates, a structural liquidity surplus in the banking sector of the Russian Federation may occur as early as November-December 2016, and the volume of the surplus, according to preliminary estimates, may reach about 1 trillion rubles by the end of the year. Thus, this trillion will not go into the economy, but will be absorbed by the Bank of Russia in one way or another.

The regulator names the use by the Ministry of Finance of the Reserve Fund to finance the federal budget deficit as the main reason for the emergence of a liquidity surplus.

This year, according to the Ministry of Finance, a federal budget deficit of more than 3% of GDP is expected, and the Reserve Fund, whose funds are used to cover the deficit, may be exhausted by the end of this year (as of August 1, it contained 2.56 trillion rubles. , or $38.18 billion).

However, it is obvious that with an adequate monetary and regulatory policy, a liquidity surplus should not arise - "extra" money is transformed into loans to the population and businesses. And in this case, the problem is that the banking system has ceased to meet the needs of the economy.

In particular, the main reasons for the liquidity surplus are as follows. First, it is an excessively high level of real interest rates in the economy due to the overvaluation of the key rate of the Bank of Russia (now it is 10.5%). Taking into account the forecast of the Bank of Russia for inflation (less than 5% in July 2017), the real interest rate included only in the key rate of the Bank of Russia is about 6-7% (for business loans it is even higher), which is an extremely high level according to any criteria both for Russia and for other countries. By setting such a level of the real interest rate, the Bank of Russia makes it extremely unprofitable to attract loans for borrowers.

Secondly, interest rates on loans do not correspond to profitability indicators in many sectors of the economy, especially in the manufacturing industry. In particular, in the economy as a whole, the level of profitability of sold goods, works, services in 2015 amounted to 9.3%, in the production of machinery and equipment - 8.2%, construction - 5.4%. For comparison, the weighted average level of interest rates on loans to non-financial organizations for a period of more than one year is about 14% per annum.

Thirdly, the Central Bank is constantly tightening banking regulation, including the transition to Basel III standards. This leads to an increase in the requirements of banks to secure loans on the part of borrowers. At the same time, in a crisis, the size and quality of collateral are objectively declining.

Thus, liquidity surplus is formed in conditions of extremely low availability of credit resources for business. In the current environment (complicated by the fall in domestic demand, including for the same reasons), business prefers to abandon the implementation of investment projects, and the economy is losing potential growth drivers.

As a result, a situation arises when business becomes a net creditor of the banking system, and not vice versa. Thus, in the second quarter of 2016, there was a situation where the growth in the volume of deposits of legal entities in banks occurred against the background of a significant reduction in their debt to banks. Deposits increased over the quarter by 84 billion rubles, while the volume of debt decreased by 1,149 billion rubles, that is, the net debt of non-financial organizations to banks decreased by more than 1.2 trillion rubles. Accordingly, the liquidity surplus is formed in this way - due to the withdrawal of funds from business to the banking system. And the placement of these funds in the Central Bank will complete the process of their withdrawal from circulation.

But economic recovery requires a search for new drivers of growth based on domestic sources.

At the same time, it is necessary to overcome such structural limitations as a high degree of depreciation of fixed assets, a low coefficient of their renewal, and a lack of infrastructure. However, modernization requires expansion of investments, which is possible only if there are available credit resources.

Tight monetary and regulatory policy of the Central Bank leads to the opposite effect. Achieving low inflation will do nothing if the answer to any inflationary risks is to "suffocate" investment activity. A failure in investment will only increase the gap in the level of labor productivity and competitiveness of products with the leading countries.

Accordingly, the expectation of a liquidity surplus should force the Central Bank not to introduce tools for its absorption, but, on the contrary, to use all available means in order to prevent a stable liquidity surplus. The key rate should be significantly reduced to a level that meets the needs of the economy and ensures the implementation of investment projects and the development of industries.

The Bank of Russia is overly focused on achieving its own inflation target and is ready to sacrifice other indicators of economic development. For example, in press releases from the Bank of Russia, wording is often used that slower consumer price growth will be facilitated by weak demand, including under the influence of a “moderately tight monetary policy”.

Moreover, in May 2016, one of the materials of the Bank of Russia clearly states: “In order to achieve the inflation target announced by the Bank of Russia, it is necessary to slow down the growth rates of a wide range of domestic economic indicators.” Thus, in fact, the Bank of Russia not only recognizes its role in the reduction of the Russian economy, but also shows its interest in low development rates.

Following the results of the July meeting of the Board of Directors, at which it was decided to leave the key rate at 10.5% per annum, the Central Bank stated that “real interest rates in the economy (taking into account inflationary expectations) will remain at a level that will ensure demand for credit that does not lead to to higher inflationary pressures, and to maintain incentives to save.”

In other words, rates will remain high so as not to "accelerate" consumer lending and lending to the real sector. Now an industrial enterprise can take a loan at 10-15%, the interest on consumer loans is 16-33% per annum, while the current inflation is 7.2%, the expected inflation at the end of the year is 5-6%.

Earlier, in one of the materials of the Central Bank, it was directly stated: “In order to achieve the inflation target declared by the Bank of Russia, it is necessary to slow down the growth rates of a wide range of domestic economic indicators.”

The latest report of the Central Bank “Financial Review: Conditions for Conducting Monetary Policy” states that the regulator expects the banking system to transition to a “structural liquidity surplus” in early 2017 due to the financing of the budget deficit from the Reserve Fund. Therefore, the press release of the Central Bank was titled very eloquently: "The expected transition to a structural liquidity surplus will not contribute to the easing of monetary conditions."

As already emphasized, the Central Bank deliberately does not intend to take any steps to stimulate lending. On the contrary, it absorbs the resulting liquidity with the help of various instruments - the sale of government bonds to banks, the placement of "extra" funds on its deposits, etc.

The Bank of Russia does not plan to develop special refinancing mechanisms for banks lending to investment projects. As an argument, the regulator refers to the fact that the current limits on specialized refinancing instruments have not been selected. But this is not surprising, given the level of interest rates on these instruments.

The rate has remained unchanged since the end of 2014 and, despite the processes taking place in the economy, is fixed at 9% per annum. At the same time, the attraction of financial resources for the implementation of investment projects for up to three years, with an expected inflation rate of 4-5% in a year, makes these instruments unattractive. Entrepreneurs will prefer to take an investment pause (which has already been prolonged), waiting for interest rates to begin to correspond to the macroeconomic situation.

In contrast to the instruments of the Bank of Russia, the government's financial support programs, which offer a lower cost of financial resources, do not have problems with applications. For example, the Industrial Development Fund, whose programs provide loans at a rate of 5% per annum, in 2015 received 1,282 applications for financing for a total of 449 billion rubles.

Of these, 74 projects were approved with a total amount of borrowed funds of 24.6 billion rubles. According to the fund, the total budget of these projects (taking into account previously invested funds and other sources of financing) is more than 90 billion rubles. A similar situation with a significant number of applications for financial and guarantee support is also observed within the framework of other institutions and programs for the development of the federal and regional levels.

The high demand for the programs of development institutions necessitates their additional capitalization at the expense of the budget. Thus, in 2016 it is planned to increase the capital of the Industrial Development Fund in the amount of 20 billion rubles.

In general, the policy of the Bank of Russia largely torpedoes the efforts to exit the recession, which are being undertaken by the Russian government. In particular, an anti-crisis action plan was adopted. It provides for the expansion of the activities of development institutions (Industrial Development Fund, Roseximbank, Russian Export Center, SME Corporation, etc.), which provide financial and other support to promising projects with export potential, an innovative component, and the potential to create high-performance jobs.

Along with this plan, the implementation of a number of “sectoral” programs aimed at mitigating the consequences of a large-scale drop in domestic demand and a shortage of available borrowed funds is envisaged. Among these programs is a program to support the automotive industry, agricultural engineering, light industry, and a program to support mortgage lending.

In addition, the authorities subsidize the cost of paying interest on loans as part of state programs to support the most important sectors of the economy (the agricultural support program, the automotive industry development program, the Housing program, etc.). In 2016, it is planned to provide about 95 billion rubles at the expense of the federal budget. subsidies to compensate for part of the cost of paying interest on loans.

In some markets, government credit subsidy programs make a critical contribution to supporting demand. Last year, state-supported loans accounted for about a third of the volume of mortgage loans issued, which were used to purchase more than 10 million sq. m. m of housing.

According to market participants, in 2016 a significant part of purchases of residential real estate (50-80% for various projects) in the primary market is also carried out under this program. In the car loan market in 2015, the share of loans under the state support program was about 35%.

But it must be admitted that the possibilities of budgetary support for industry are very limited.

The authorities are forced to abandon the indexation of pensions, salaries to state employees and social benefits to the level of inflation, which has an extremely negative impact on the income of the population and consumer demand.

For example, there will be no second indexation of pensions this year; instead, at the beginning of next year, all pensioners will be paid a lump sum of 5 thousand rubles.

Numerous experts (the Stolypin Club, the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Financial University under the Government, etc.) believe that in the context of a recession and budgetary constraints, the Bank of Russia should soften its monetary policy, as well as develop and offer the economy (primarily the real sector) specialized mechanisms for financing the investment process.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank takes an uncompromising position, de facto emphasizing in almost every official statement that it is ready to sacrifice economic growth in order to reduce inflation to 4% by the end of 2017.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on the key rate and monetary policy will be held on September 16. Most likely, the regulator will keep the rate at the same level or symbolically reduce it (to 10%). At the same time, all other parameters of the Central Bank's policy will remain unchanged, analysts predict. Thus, the transition to the beginning of the active phase of the recovery of the Russian economy will again be postponed indefinitely.

In April and May of this year, the Bank of Russia sold OFZs on the exchange market, trying to take away excess liquidity. Market participants are dissatisfied with the lack of transparency of the actions of the Central Bank. Why is the regulator selling OFZs?

Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

What did the Central Bank do?

In April and May of this year, the Bank of Russia began selling federal loan bonds (OFZ) from its own portfolio on the exchange market, the press service of the Central Bank reported. Through these operations, the regulator took free money from banks. The Central Bank did not report the volume of sold bonds, and only spoke about the fact after the fact. This caused dissatisfaction among market participants. In particular, Alexei Pogorelov, an economist at Credit Suisse, told Bloomberg that he regards the actions of the regulator as a negative factor that does not allow for a correct assessment of the value of securities. According to him, the main problem is the lack of transparency of the operation.

According to ING analyst Dmitry Polevoy, the regulator could sell securities worth 50-100 billion rubles. In total, the Bank of Russia had government securities worth 207 billion rubles. at the beginning of the year, said on Wednesday, May 11, Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin. He also added that the operation was agreed with the Ministry of Finance and is almost completed: most of the planned has already been sold.

The sale of OFZs in such volumes is a relatively new tool for the Central Bank, which it uses to regulate the liquidity of the banking sector in addition to the main operations of monetary policy. “Before the 2014 crisis, the regulator sold OFZs, but these were insignificant volumes; the last time, in 2011, the Central Bank sold government securities worth about 10 billion rubles,” says Oleg Kuzmin, chief economist for Russia and the CIS at Renaissance Capital.

Why is the Bank of Russia taking "extra money"?

The sale of OFZs should help the Bank of Russia to take the "excess rubles" accumulated from banks. Due to the excess liquidity in the market, rates are falling, and this puts companies that are trying to attract fundingin a difficult position: banks prefer to keep money on deposits in the Central Bank, where the rate is higher, rather than buying corporate bonds. Already, the borrowing rate for first-tier companies has fallen below the deposit rate of the Central Bank, as shown by the recent placement of MegaFon bonds. In such a situation, in theory, the money accumulated by banks does not flow into the real economy and does not work for its growth. There is no such thing in Russia yet, investors are buying up any corporate issues at any rates. However, according to the Central Bank, in January-March 2016, the total volume of loans in the economy decreased by 2.4%.

In the conditions of economic stagnation, low rates lead to unwinding of inflation, which is what the Bank of Russia fears, whose goal is to reduce inflation from the current 7.3 to 4%. To do this, the regulator keeps the key rate at 11%. “With a liquidity surplus, market rates fall below the key one, which means that, regardless of the desire of the Central Bank, monetary policy begins to soften, which could become a threat to the inflation target,” Alexander Morozov, head of the Central Bank’s research and forecasting department, said in April (quote according to RIA Novosti).

“In addition, there is a risk that the “extra money” will go to the foreign exchange market, and this may lead to a new round of ruble volatility and, as a result, to an increase in inflation,” says Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS FG. The Central Bank, according to him, is trying to prevent this, so that it does not have to help the banks again. “In 2014, when the ruble depreciated sharply, banks had many liabilities in foreign currency. They found themselves in a difficult situation, and the regulator had to save them through the currency REPO mechanism, ”the economist recalls.

Where did the banks get "extra rubles"?

Analysts directly link the growth of ruble liquidity in the banking sector with the federal budget deficit financed by the Ministry of Finance from the Reserve Fund. “In 2015-2016, the Federal Treasury and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation began to place funds on deposits much more actively, which is one of the sources of liquidity inflow at the beginning of the calendar year,” reads the materials prepared by the Rossiya Association of Regional Banks. In particular, the decrease in the balances of funds in the accounts of the extended government with the Central Bank added liquidity to the banking sector in the amount of almost 3.1 trillion rubles in 2015, and the banking sector received about another trillion due to foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank and the reduction of cash in circulation.

“This money supply goes to the banking sector,” explains Denis Poryvai from Raiffeisenbank. But last year, this money did not lead to a liquidity surplus, because banks used it to pay off debts to the Central Bank, the analyst said.

In April, the Ministry of Finance used 390 billion rubles for the first time since the beginning of the year. from the Reserve Fund to finance the budget deficit. Spending the Reserve Fund is a kind of "free issue", and does not depend on the current level of interest rates - unlike the issue of domestic debt, says ACRA analyst Dmitry Kulikov.

What is a structural liquidity surplus?

A structural liquidity surplus means that banks have so much money that they are no longer interested in attracting funds from the Central Bank, but, on the contrary, act as its creditors themselves, placing excess liquidity on deposits and correspondent accounts. The reverse situation is a structural liquidity deficit in the banking sector, in which banks feel the need to obtain refinancing from the regulator. In the latter case, the Central Bank can act as a donor for the banking system, providing resources, in particular, for lending to the economy or, on the contrary, reducing the volume of refinancing in order, for example, to limit the flow of rubles to the foreign exchange market. According to the Rossiya association, in 2015 the regulator reduced the amount of liquidity it provides to banks by 3.6 trillion rubles.

The danger of a structural surplus is that the Central Bank partly loses control over the liquidity management process, since it cannot influence the banking sector with the help of the interest rate. “There are already large banks that practically do not depend on the resources of the Central Bank and provide long-term credit resources at a rate even lower than the deposit rate of the Central Bank,” says Denis Poryvay. In fact, this means that the regulator loses control over monetary policy and the initiative goes over to the banks.

When will the market reach a structural surplus?

With a further increase in the level of ruble liquidity, a situation may arise when banks begin to place more funds on correspondent accounts and deposits of the Central Bank than they attract from the regulator through REPO operations and loans secured by non-marketable assets. In fact, it has already happened. According to Irina Lebedeva, an analyst at FC Uralsib, at the beginning of the year, the volume of the structural deficit of the banking system was about 2 trillion rubles. There were days in April-May when the volume of funds attracted by banks in the Central Bank was lower than the volume of money placed by them.

Government borrowings in numbers

1 trillion rub. will be the volume of borrowings of the Ministry of Finance in 2016

300 billion rubles will be the net placement of government bonds, taking into account the redemption of old OFZ issues

RUB 1.73 trillion banks held in the Central Bank as of May 12, 2016, including 318.9 billion on deposits

WITH3.76 trillion up to 946.6 billion rubles. the volume of debt of the banking sector to the Central Bank has decreased since the beginning of the year

5 trillion rubles is the total volume of the OFZ market

207 billion rubles was the volume of government bonds in the Bank of Russia portfolio at the beginning of 2016

RUB 2.89 trillion was in the Reserve Fund on May 1, 2016. In April this year, the Ministry of Finance spent 390 billion rubles from the Reserve Fund to finance the federal budget deficit.

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