Five reasons why ISIS is still far from defeated. What will happen after the victory over ISIS in Syria? New miscalculations could lead to growing discontent
US President Donald Trump agreed to slow down the withdrawal of American troops from Syria, doing it “smartly.”
Senator Lindsey Graham stated this after a meeting with the US leader, the Washington Examiner reports.
"After discussions with the President and Dunford (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford - ed.), I have never felt better about where we are going," Graham said.
The senator noted that they decided to take a pause in order to choose the best ways to achieve their goals.
“I think we'll slow this down in a smart way. We have now taken a pause to evaluate what is the best way to achieve the president’s goals,” he said.
According to Graham, everything possible must now be done to prevent escalation between the Syrian Kurds and Turkey and prevent Iran from benefiting from the current situation.
Diplomatic isolation is a thing of the past for Assad - Washington Post
Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was previously a diplomatic pariah, but now the former Arab adversaries are restoring ties, writes The Washington Post.
In 2011, after the outbreak of the civil war in Syria, Damascus found itself in diplomatic isolation from a number of foreign countries. Many have closed their embassies or recalled ambassadors over security concerns, but some have signaled their condemnation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his government.
However, after seven years of war, Assad remains in power. The Syrian government, with strong support from its Russian and Iranian allies, has managed to regain control of large parts of the country, bringing the rebels to the brink of complete defeat.
Now it appears that closed embassies in the Syrian capital may reopen as Assad's diplomatic isolation begins to ease, the article said.
The flag of the United Arab Emirates was raised above a complex of buildings in central Damascus on Thursday as UAE Charge d'Affaires Abdul Hakim Naimi officially opened a diplomatic mission in the country. The Foreign Ministry said in a statement that "the move underscores the UAE government's commitment to returning relations between the two brotherly countries to normalcy."
The next day, the Bahraini Foreign Ministry announced that “work continues at its embassy” in Syria, despite the fact that there has been no ambassador there since 2011.
These steps are quite remarkable, the publication points out.
In particular, the UAE has been an active supporter of Syrian opposition groups, a key ally of Saudi Arabia and once one of the most vocal critics of the Assad government in the Middle East. Both the UAE and Bahrain are members of the Arab League, a regional organization that suspended Syria's membership in 2011. Many now think that this decision will be reversed and Syria's membership will be restored, and it is only a matter of time.
In addition to official work in embassies, there were other signals that Damascus was reintegrating into the regional community. For example, at the beginning of this year the border between Syria and Jordan was calmly opened.
These moves by Arab countries appear to represent recognition of the Syrian regime's likely victory over the forces that rebelled against Assad back in 2011. The government currently controls all major cities in Syria and approximately two-thirds of its territory.
Last week, President Trump announced that US troops would soon leave the country, effectively increasing the influence of other regional powers such as Iran, Turkey and Russia.
It is unclear whether major Western countries will follow this example, writes The Washington Post. The only EU country that currently has an embassy in Syria is the Czech Republic.
Cynical and depressing ending
About the results of the year in Syria.
First, the notable hysteria in the Times about what is happening in Syria as a symbol of the ongoing strife in the ranks of the anti-Assad coalition.
The consequences of President Trump's reckless announcement to withdraw all 2,000 US troops from Syria can now be seen on the ground. Yesterday, Turkey, eager to clear all Kurdish forces from its southern borders, sent tanks into the area of Manbij, a strategic city in northern Syria that was a base for US troops and is now controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, largely composed of the Kurdish People's Protection Units. In response, the Kurds turned to Damascus with a request to protect them by re-occupying the city. The Syrian army entered the suburbs for the first time in six years.
It seems that the conflict in Syria has come to an end. Moreover, the end is cynical and depressing, as a result of which President Assad will continue to ruthlessly rule almost the entire country with the help of his Russian and Iranian allies, who are determined to help him carry out a “purge.” Turkey, no longer fearing a clash with its NATO allies the Americans, appears poised to deliver a powerful blow to Kurdish militias fighting Islamic State terrorists. Abandoned by their American allies, the Kurds have once again submitted to the dictates of the Assad government and are being attacked by a vengeful President Erdogan, who links the militias to the Kurdistan Workers' Party and brands them all as terrorists.
In addition, the West lost greatly from this situation. When American forces withdraw, which will happen soon, only British and French troops will remain to remind of the international coalition called to fight ISIS. Now they will not play any role in stabilizing Syria. They have been pushed to the periphery, unable to defend their Kurdish allies, contain Turkish advances, or provide any military counterweight to the Russian and Iranian militaries supporting Assad. Despite protests from the Ministry of Defense that British troops will continue to play a role in consolidating victories over ISIS, they are likely to be withdrawn quietly soon.
The Russians, in particular, got everything they wanted: a permanent presence in Syria, a Syrian leader wholly dependent on their support, and the goodwill of Middle Eastern powers and political players who recognize Russia's dominant role in the region. President Putin no longer needs to worry about a potential clash with Western forces: they will all be gone soon. Its pilots no longer need to coordinate their bombing missions with American fighters: Americans will not fly over the region for some time. Iran, too, no longer has to worry about international pressure to withdraw its troops (even though many Iranians would like to see them return home). Ironically, Trump's decision worked to Tehran's advantage.
Turkey now has a key position. Erdogan has the strength to decisively “cleanse” his border regions of Kurdish “terrorists,” which will be useful for political ratings ahead of local elections in Turkey in March. But by entering Manbij, he risks directly clashing with the Assad government and, as one of the three participants in the peace talks in Astana, will be wary of any military confrontation with the Syrian army and its Russian backers. But you no longer need to worry that the United States will be against all this: Trump has abdicated all responsibility for the Syrian war.
To ensure a satisfactory distribution of the spoils, a Turkish delegation is arriving in Moscow today after Russia invited Turkey to mediate between Damascus and the Syrian Kurds in the northeast. The deal will be concluded, the Kurds will be betrayed again, and Assad, having destroyed his country, is again ready to take the reins of the ruins. Who lost Syria? This is what Donald Trump can think about now.
PS. I wonder what kind of end they expected, because the fact that Assad would not go anywhere became clear even to the most narrow-minded back in 2017, and those who persisted in their delusion were overtaken by the notorious “Assad’s curse.”
The hysteria is so strong that they cannot even hide their disappointment at the fact that the war is not ending at all as they would like.
And it’s funny enough that they are trying to blame the loss of the Syrian war (and Britain was one of the parties there, and it ended up on the losing side) on Trump, although the decisive battle of the Syrian war for Aleppo took place under Obama. Under Trump, long-standing enclaves in central and western Syria only consistently collapsed and the Caliphate was defeated. Now the claims are being made not to those who began the campaign to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in 2011, not to those who for many years supported the efforts of the CIA and the Pentagon to supply terrorist groups in Syria, not to those who supplied weapons to Syria. The claims are being made against Trump, who, as a cynical businessman, decided to dump a “toxic asset” where the United States could no longer win. An excellent scapegoat.
This is what happened under Trump. The Caliphate and the green pockmarks of the enclaves disappeared from the map - the Rastan Cauldron, Eastern Ghouta, Eastern Qalamun, Yarmouk, Deraa, Quneitra.
Parts of Northern Hama and southeast Aleppo up to Abu Dhahur were also liberated.
Iran built its Shiite Tehran-Beirut bridge and overtook the United States in the race to the Iraqi border, skirting the occupied zone at At-Tanf.
At the end of December 2018 there were:
1. One way or another, resolve the issue of Idlib with Turkey.
2. Resolve the Kurdish issue, which, after the withdrawal of American troops in 2019, will constitute an agreement between the Russian-Iranian coalition and Turkey.
3. Liberate the At-Tanf region after the US withdrawal.
4. Clear out ISIS in the province of Deir ez-Zor - both south of the city and near the border with Iraq on the Eastern Bank of the Euphrates.
It is these tasks that Syria, with the support of Iran and Russia, will solve in 2019.
The war is gradually fading away (the 2018 campaign was less intense than the 2016-2017 campaign), and Assad’s control over Syria has been strengthened to such an extent that the West has already recognized that Assad won, and Assad’s enemies in the Arab world are now lining up in queue to open an embassy in Damascus.
All this, of course, does not mean that everything is fine with Assad. Syria and its allies face a number of formidable challenges.
1. The problem of the return and settlement of refugees. This is a very expensive undertaking, for which they are currently looking for a sponsor. The most obvious option is Europe, but it is still hesitating, choosing between helping Syria and migrants from Syria.
2. The problem of economic and infrastructure restoration. According to various estimates, from 65 to 75% of the country's infrastructure has been destroyed. Tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars are needed for restoration. Russia, China, Iran and a number of other countries will certainly help, but this is not enough.
3. The ISIS problem will continue to be felt for years to come in the form of terrorist attacks, suicide attacks and recruitment of neophytes. The Mukhabarat faces an uphill battle to root out ISIS cells and prevent it from taking root in post-war Syria.
4. The problem of developing a new Constitution, which should take into account the interests of many religious and ethnic groups in order to dampen the conflict along the Sunni/Shiite line and achieve mutual understanding with the Kurds.
5. The problem of restoring relations with Turkey, where Assad and Erdogan will have to meet one way or another, where Assad will have to guarantee Erdogan “decent behavior” on the part of the Kurds, and Erdogan “decent behavior” on the part of his fighters.
These problems lie on a different plane and relate rather to post-war Syria, which, after the convening of the Constitutional Assembly (expected in 2019), will transform as a state. Despite the victory of Assad and his allies in the Syrian war, Syria will never be the same again, and it depends on Assad and the Syrians themselves which path this country will take. And if it is not possible to ensure the normal restoration of Syria and the improvement of the lives of Syrians, then in the long term this may devalue the fruits of military victories.
Russia generally achieved what it wanted in the 2018 campaign. If you look at Gerasimov’s interview last year, you can see that the goals set by the head of the General Staff were generally achieved. A certain fly in the ointment was the protracted story with Idlib, where Erdogan is openly slowing down the implementation of the Sochi agreements, as well as the story with the Il-20, which led to a revision of relations with Israel. The last major operation involving the Russian military was the cleansing in Suweida, where Russian special forces helped clear out the undead ISIS gangs that the Syrians could not finish off.
At the end of 2018, the Russian military began participating in operations in the Manbij area, but we will learn the outcome of these maneuvers (which have so far led to the transfer of territories west of Manbij to Assad’s control) in the new year, when the agreements with Turkey on Manbij and Rojava are implemented.
On a macro scale, Syria in 2018 became a kind of springboard for Russia, relying on which Russia is expanding its influence in northeastern and central Africa, which made it possible, at relatively low costs, to seriously expand its military-political and economic influence in those countries from which Russia left after the collapse of the USSR.
Iran also achieved what it wanted in 2018 - the Tehran-Beirut bridge is successfully operating and Hezbollah is at the peak of its military-political influence. Elections in Lebanon and Iraq ended in Iran's favor. Hezbollah has strengthened in Lebanon, and a bloc of pro-Iranian Shiites and Sadrists has come to power in Iraq, who, despite all their differences, are united in the fact that ISIS must be cleansed and the United States must be expelled from Iraq. The Yemen plague has not gone away either, which in the last year has greatly distracted Saudi Arabia from Syrian affairs. The Saudis and Emirates failed to defeat the Houthis, which means that even if the truce is in effect, in the future Iran will achieve its goal of transforming the Houthi movement into an analogue of Hezbollah, securing long-term positions for itself in both belligerent and post-war Yemen. Sanctions against Iran follow US and Israeli dissatisfaction with how their hybrid war against Iranian influence is developing in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
By the end of 2018, both the winners of the Syrian war are already quite obvious - Syria, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and Turkey (this is what it means to change sides in time), and the losers - the Caliphate, Al-Qaeda, the USA, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar , Israel.
Where the Kurds will end up in this situation depends on them - while they still have a chance to jump on the bandwagon of the departing Syrian train, otherwise there is a high risk that they will simply be loaded onto this train, and not only will everyone survive. As German comrades wrote back in 2016, the tactical alliance of the Kurds with American imperialism led the Kurds to strategic defeat - in all three cases when the United States could have helped the Kurds, it surrendered them. Another will be science.
2019 has every reason to be the last year of the Syrian war, and I want it to finally bring long-awaited peace to Syria.
Just a few months ago, ISIS kept the whole world in fear, but today it’s as if it has disappeared into thin air. Has the largest and richest terrorist organization really been eliminated? Or is this a temporary calm before a storm of new attacks? If so, who is her new target? And what place does Central Asia and Kazakhstan in particular occupy in these plans?
ISIS is a local phenomenon aimed at redrawing the map of the Middle East, and therefore its sphere of interests does not concern Central Asia. That’s what experts said, at least, before the defeat of the terrorist monster in Syria.
Today, the forecasts of some of them have shifted their geography somewhat. We are talking about the remaining ISIS fighters who may move to other countries and participate in new conflicts. And if we take into account the statements of the ISIS members themselves that their organization sets one of its goals to destabilize the situation in the Muslim republics of Central Asia, as well as in Russia, it is possible that uninvited guests will soon appear in our area.
However, the latest version loses all meaning if you believe the opinion of most experts that ISIS is just a political PR project created by certain forces with the aim of influencing certain players, and at the same time keeping the whole world on its toes. And as soon as the need for the scarecrow disappeared, it was immediately abolished as unnecessary.
The directors of the “horror film” didn’t even bother with the ending - although it turned out to be happy, it looked somehow crumpled and implausible. Considering all these controversial issues, we decided to figure out where ISIS went after all? How will the situation unfold further? Maybe it's too early to write him off? After all, an artificially created image is one thing, and living people who quite realistically believed in his ideas and do not intend to deviate from them are another.
Moreover, it is known that Kazakh citizens, as well as citizens from neighboring countries, regularly went to Syria and fought on the side of ISIS. Hypothetically, they could return and pose a serious threat to the security of the region...
Alexander Knyazev, expert on the countries of Central Asia and the Middle East: “ISIS does not pose any military threat to the countries of Central Asia”
– Alexander Alekseevich, what really happened to ISIS?
– The ISIS project was initially focused on a specific region – the Middle East. And as soon as adequate counteraction was applied against it by the government forces of Syria, Iraq, with the participation of Russia and Iran, the military potential of this organization was immediately almost eliminated.
That is, ISIS, in fact, was not a phenomenon on a planetary scale, as many believed, succumbing to the propaganda of both the organization itself and its opponents... As a combat unit capable of holding large territories and imitating the creation of a state, ISIS, I think, has already ended its existence.
True, there are still professional fighters with a certain experience, a certain worldview, who will now begin to flow to those regions of the world where they will be more in demand. So they will try to physically preserve this movement and the brand itself. After all, at first this brand worked very effectively in the information sphere, but now its halo has faded considerably.
This means that we will still hear about ISIS: for some time it will manifest itself locally. But sooner or later all these units will dissolve into other groups, probably in the Middle East.
– There is an opinion that ISIS will flow into Central Asia. Moreover, in this case Afghanistan is considered as a springboard for the invasion of terrorist groups into our territory? How realistic is this?
– I am critical of the talk that after the defeat in Syria and Iraq, ISIS is concentrating its forces in Afghanistan and the countries of Central Asia. As you know, ISIS has been trying to gain a foothold in Afghanistan for more than three years, but without much results. Not only was he unable to qualitatively replenish his ranks there, but he also suffered a lot of splits. In addition, the central leadership of ISIS in Syria now has no time for its Afghan branch, so it exists in isolation, on its own. If we correctly imagine this entire structure, it will become obvious that it does not pose any military threat to the countries of Central Asia.
Firstly, as I have already noted, the Afghan ISIS group is strongly split, both along ethnic and regional lines: Pashtuns separately in the eastern part of the country, representatives of Central Asian ethnic groups (there are Uighurs, Chechens, Arabs) separately in the north.
Secondly, it is very small in number. According to my data, the real military potential of ISIS, for example, in the north of Afghanistan is about two thousand people. Moreover, we are not talking about any full-fledged battalions, divisions or regiments that can go on the offensive on command.
This is not ISIS in Iraq, where entire structural units of the former Iraqi army joined it. In Afghanistan, this is a huge number of disparate guerrilla-type groups of 10-20 people, very rarely - 40. Not only is there a constant struggle for leadership within them, but they are also quite mobile: today they are in ISIS, and tomorrow, if something don’t like it, already as part of another organization.
That is, somehow coordinating them, forcing them to perform together will be very difficult. They are not capable of any long-term joint actions, especially when they sense opposition.
Thirdly, in Afghanistan itself they are constantly in a state of competitive war with other groups, primarily with the Taliban movement, which is so deeply rooted in the country that in many cases it has the support of the Afghan population. That is, their potential is incomparable...
Well, fourthly, we must not forget that in order to attack the countries of Central Asia, one must at least cross their borders. And this is not so simple...
– Nevertheless, the terrorist threat in the countries of Central Asia remains. If not ISIS, then from whom does the potential danger come?
– I won’t say anything fundamentally new now. It is a known fact that one must be wary of internal protest potential, especially among that part of the population that, due to low education, religious illiteracy and social status, is exposed to the influence of ideologies like those promoted by ISIS.
I repeat once again that ISIS does not pose any threat to our region, but its ideology will continue to influence our audience, and can even be used by other groups, but of local origin.
In this vein, the situation in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan poses the greatest danger, and to a lesser extent in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. If only because in the latter countries special structures have been created to counter extremist and terrorist ideologies, and are already slowly doing this.
At the same time, it is difficult to talk about any specific group, because they arise and disappear. In Kazakhstan, for example, several years ago they talked about “Jund al-Caliphate” (“Soldiers of the Caliphate”), but such a group did not exist in principle, it was purely virtual.
There will probably be statements on behalf of ISIS... But I am generally skeptical about reports that this or that terrorist organization has claimed responsibility for a particular terrorist attack. Any group can be invented if someone needs it...
Rustam Burnashev, political scientist: “It is likely that a new similar project will arise”
– Rustam Renatovich, don’t you think it’s strange that ISIS suddenly disappeared from the information space? How can this be explained?
– If you think that ISIS was really something like a state that conducted military operations similar to a cinematic picture depicting the events of the Second World War, then the “disappearance” of ISIS from the media field may indeed seem something strange.
But if we consider ISIS as a media and political construct, a kind of “brand” that was inscribed in a “virtual war,” all the “strangeness” will disappear. Jean Baudrillard, describing the Gulf War in 1991, which was actively represented in the media field, pointed out that the main issue in understanding such events is their interpretation.
Is it possible to compare what “really” happened with what was shown and can these events be called “war”? What happened in the Middle East in connection with ISIS is the clearest example of how “what happened” and “shown” do not coincide.
ISIS was a project, the main beneficiaries of this project declared that they had won the war against ISIS, which is why it “disappeared” from the media field.
– How do you see the future fate of ISIS? There is an opinion that it will transform into another terrorist organization, the target of which will no longer be the Middle East, but Central Asia...
– In my opinion, ISIS is a project very similar to what was previously called Al-Qaeda. These projects do not transform into each other; they put forward their own unique ideology and technology of presence in the media field, forming their own “world”. Therefore, ISIS will not transform into anything. It is likely that a new similar project will emerge – this, in my opinion, is indisputable.
However, its positioning on the countries of Central Asia is unlikely, first of all, due to the peripheral nature of our region, its low significance for world politics and, accordingly, for the formation of a “virtual war”.
But I would not say that this is impossible. More significant, it seems to me, is what will happen to the structures and people who are represented outside the Middle East and who have accepted the ideology of ISIS as a guide to action. Having lost their ideological center, they can turn to “lone wolf” tactics (spontaneous extremist and terrorist actions), which are the most difficult to prevent.
Saule IsabaevaTags: Central Asia, Islam, ISIS
The terrorist attack at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester killed at least 22 people. There are children among the dead.
The Islamic State terrorist group has claimed responsibility for the explosion, and accounts linked to it say it is “just the beginning.”
The goal of IS is to build a global caliphate. Even if it is possible to clear Iraq and Syria of militants (according to optimistic forecasts, their forces will be completely defeated by the end of 2017), only their terrorist quasi-state will cease to exist, but not the idea that inspires suicide bombers to carry out terrorist attacks around the world.
"The Secret" chronicles the evolution of the most powerful terrorist organization in world history.
How does the Islamic State work?
In 2014, the creation of the Islamic State was announced by the Iraqi theologian and Islamic scholar Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, also known as Abu Dua or Caliph Ibrahim. Little is still known about the personality of this man: it was said that he even gives orders to his fighters from behind a mask.
It is believed that al-Baghdadi is about 45 years old, a native of the Iraqi city of Samarra and, presumably, was a cleric in the mosque when American troops entered Iraq (however, some researchers claim that this is “propaganda”). He was then detained in the American camp Bucca as an accomplice of terrorists. After his release, he became actively involved in al-Qaeda activities in Iraq.
At the beginning of this year, there were reports of an IS ideologist being seriously wounded. Now he is either in Mosul or in the deserts near the Jordanian borders.
The state with a population of 1–2 million people, which al-Baghdadi began to build on the occupied territories of Iraq and Syria, is divided into vilayats (provinces) and qawatis (cities and towns) and lives according to Sharia law.
When IS captures a new city, write the authors of the book “Islamic State” Michael Weiss and Hassan Hasan, the first object that begins to function is “Hadad Square”. Punishments are carried out there: they are crucified, beheaded, flogged and their hands are cut off. But IS also has regular municipal services, media work (for example, the Amaq agency, which reported IS’s involvement in the terrorist attack in Manchester, or the famous Dabiq magazine), and “citizens” pay taxes.
In 2014, CNN estimated the annual budget of the Islamic State at $2 billion. But its main source of replenishment - oil sales - is becoming scarce. In 2015, terrorists could earn $500 million, in 2016 - $260 million.
What is IS seeking?
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi created IS to establish “the kingdom of Allah on earth.” First, the militants want to create a powerful association of Islamists that can oppose secular states, and then establish a worldwide caliphate that will live according to Sharia law.
First of all, the militants promised to deal with all “opponents of Islam” and “US minions”; in 2015, they threatened to destroy Israel and seize the Gaza Strip: “We will uproot Israel. You (Hamas - The Secret), Fatah and all these supporters of a secular state are nothing, so our advancing ranks will displace you,” said one of the militants’ video messages. Although Hamas and Fatah are also Islamist groups, IS threatened them with reprisals for their lack of adherence to Sharia: “For eight years they have ruled the Gaza Strip and have not been able to implement a single fatwa from Allah.”
Since then, the militants have been unable to start a war with Israel. In 2016, the Al-Naba newspaper, published by IS, explained that first they would have to establish power in Iraq and Syria, then put an end to the “godless governments” within the Muslim world.
“The Islamic State is not just a bunch of psychopaths,” American journalist Graham Wood warned in The Atlantic in 2015. “This is a religious group with its own skillfully selected doctrine, not least of which is the belief that IS fighters are hastening the coming end of the world.”
According to Islamic eschatology, after the end of the world, Allah will call all believers to himself, but before that, the last battle must take place between Muslims and “Romans” (as Islamic theologians call Christians) in the Syrian city of Dabiq.
What territory does IS control?
The main gains of the Islamic State came in 2014. In January, militants defeated the Iraqi army in the city of Fallujah, and in June they captured one of the largest cities in Iraq, Mosul. The terrorists then launched an attack on Baghdad, simultaneously seizing infrastructure, destroying architectural monuments and executing local residents, journalists and other infidels. An economy appeared in the state - income was generated through trade in oil and antiquities. By September, IS had captured a large area of territory in Iraq and Syria, which Vox compared to the size of Belgium. In addition to Mosul, the militants held Al-Qaim, Syrian Raqqa and reached Aleppo, that is, to the border of Syria and Turkey. According to the BBC, at the peak of its power, IS controlled 40% of the territory of Iraq, with about 10 million civilians under occupation.
In 2015, the United States began mass bombing of IS positions, Russian air forces became involved, and local resistance units became more active. During the first half of 2015, the self-proclaimed state lost 9.4% of previously conquered territories in Iraq. True, when IS loses influence in one area, it often compensates for this by capturing new cities. Thus, in May 2015, the ancient city of Palmyra was taken; in August, militants paying special attention to propaganda and working with mass communication channels published a video of the explosion of the ancient temple of Palmyra. This video caused horror in the Western world. Palmyra was soon liberated by the American and Russian military, and a symphony orchestra conducted by Valery Gergiev played on the ruins of the temple, but in 2016, militants retook this land again.
In January 2016, IS controlled more than 70,000 square meters. km in the territory of Iraq and Syria, by the end of the year the militants had lost 14% of their gains and were left with 60,400 sq. km. According to the IHS Conflict Monitor, by October 2016, about 6 million civilians remained under occupation. In April 2017, the Iraqi government announced that the terrorist organization now controls no more than 7% of the country's territory - less than 30,000 square meters. km. In Syria, ISIS troops are also suffering defeats.
Who is resisting IS and who is helping?
The conflict in Syria and Iraq is a war of all against all, and the Islamic State is fighting on several fronts. His main opponents are an international coalition of 68 states led by the United States, the Iraqi government army, the Syrian army of President Bashar al-Assad and Russia (which has been on his side in the civil war that has been going on in this country since 2011).
In April 2013, IS entered the Civil War in Syria, but not on the side of Assad’s opponents, but as an independent force. Late that year, terrorists took part in a Sunni uprising against the Shiite government in Baghdad and began to control Iraq's Anbar province. IS quickly captured the territories of these countries, and Iraq even called what was happening the Third World War, meaning the upcoming construction of a global caliphate. Concerned about such activity, the United States sent the first instructors to Iraq in the summer of 2014 to help the military. In September, to fight IS, the Americans assembled an international anti-terrorist coalition, which became the largest association of its kind in history - today it includes 68 countries.
The US State Department estimates that by March 2017, the coalition had spent more than $22 billion on the war effort - and will spend another $2 billion in 2017. The most active participants are Germany, Canada, Great Britain, France, Australia, Türkiye. They sent 9,000 troops to Syria and Iraq, donated 8,200 tons of military equipment and carried out more than 19,000 airstrikes.
The United States plays a key role in the coalition: 4,850 American troops are fighting IS in Iraq, and 2,500 in Kuwait.
Iraq sent 300,000 military and the same number of police to fight IS, Iraqi Kurdistan (a Kurdish state entity within Iraq) - 200,000, Iran - 40,000. In the Syrian army, about 250,000 troops are fighting IS.
In the fall of 2015, Russia entered the war with the Islamic State. Then Moscow's representative to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, said that we would not join the allied countries because the coalition was bombing Syria without the consent of the local government and without permission from the UN Security Council. It was not officially stated how many Russians are fighting in Syria, but it is believed that there are at least several thousand of them there.
Officially, no one in the world recognizes IS as a state, much less provides support to the terrorist group. But many are suspected of providing financial assistance to terrorists: Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and even Israel. The New York Times even published the names of individual patrons of the arts. For example, journalists suspect Kuwaiti businessman Ghanim al-Mteiri of aiding IS.
In October 2016, documents from Hillary Clinton's hacked email account confirmed that even some US allies could be helping ISIS: “We must put pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are illegally supporting ISIS and other radical Sunnis in the region,” it said. correspondence.
Most of Syria's oil and gas fields are in the hands of ISIS, and Turkey and Jordan are considered the main buyers of illegal oil. The United States and Europe accused Assad's Russian ally of the same thing.
Chronicle of ISIS terrorist attacks
Since June 2014, IS supporters have carried out about 150 terrorist attacks in three dozen countries, killing at least 2,000 people. This does not count the killings of civilians in Iraq and Syria, public executions of military personnel, journalists, and humanitarian workers.
Outside of Iraq and Syria, the first IS-related terrorist attacks occurred back in 2014. Mass attacks began in 2015. On January 7, two terrorists stormed the offices of Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris and shot and killed 12 editorial staff. The attack may have been related to the publication of a cartoon of the leader of the Islamic State. In November, Paris again became a target for militants. This time the terrorists organized six attacks in different parts of the city. 132 dead. This has never happened in Western Europe.
In 2016, several large-scale terrorist attacks occurred at once. In March, two suicide bombers blew themselves up at Brussels airport. 14 people died. Another explosion occurred in the subway an hour and a half later. 21 killed. In June, 45 people were killed in an attack on Istanbul airport. First, the militants shot at people, and then detonated an explosive device. In July, a truck driven by a terrorist drove into a crowd of people on an embankment in Nice. 86 deaths.
On October 13, 2015, IS declared jihad against Russia, and on October 31 of the same year, a bomb exploded on board a Kogalymavia plane that took off from Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. 217 passengers and seven crew members were killed.
In one of my previous articles on the Syrian topic, I suggested similar painful bites from the Islamists in relation to the Russian military group in Syria: guerrilla warfare is the most unpleasant war for any army in the world.
And here is the result: as a result of one shelling, the Russian military suffered more losses than in the entire previous two years of the war (at least in equipment).
What kind of “victory” is this when the losses during the war are less than the losses after its end?
The shelling of a Russian military base was PROVOKED by VLADIMIR PUTIN with his thoughtless statement about victory over terrorism in Syria. This is as clear as two and two: when the enemy is not defeated, but hears laudatory statements about his destruction, he has a natural desire to prove the opposite. This is why ISIS showed its teeth.
The shelling of the base in Khmeimimi once again proved that the organization of military operations of the Russian army in Syria is not at the proper level. Russian generals focus on the fact that they are fighting against “sheep-fuckers”, and therefore they neglect military regulations, which CLEARLY INDICATE THE EXCLUSION ZONE NEAR MILITARY OBJECTS.
(By the way, judging by the photo, the planes at the base itself are concentrated too densely, which should not be the case)
If these standards had been met, then any shelling would not have led to such disastrous results: four Su-24s were destroyed; two Su-35S; one transport An-72; at least two helicopters were damaged; the warehouse was blown up; at least two military personnel were killed; dozens were injured of varying severity...
Speaking in the language of Russian propaganda, the Islamists carried out a successful operation to destroy the manpower and equipment of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Anything can happen in war - both success and defeat. If it weren’t for the “judoka’s” croaking about the imaginary victory, then there would have been a completely different attitude towards this failure. And so, the terrorists clearly showed that Vova is engaged in spreading fake news.
As a result, it turned out to be another propaganda puncture of the GDP. Yes, and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation screwed up, stupidly denying the very fact of the shelling at the initial stage, but this time the losses could not be attributed to the Wagnerites. Another proof that the Russian authorities are trying to fool the gullible people at every opportunity...
Do you think that the Americans did not put their playful little hands into organizing this successful shelling? Of course they did. In any case, in information terms, providing the Islamists with intelligence data about mistakes in organizing the security of the Russian military base. And as can be seen from the results of the attack, they were quite serious.
Therefore, Vladimir Putin needs to talk less and do more work. First of all, it is necessary to drive this civilian Minister of Defense Shoigu into the neck: let him put out fires - he did it better.
How is Shoigu different from women who hold the positions of defense ministers in Europe? Only with his “aggregate” between his legs, but in everything else he is completely similar to them, especially with theoretical information about military affairs...
Damn, what have you seen, the country is at war, and the Ministry of War is headed by a “warlike Tuvan reindeer herder”! There have not been such miracles in Russia since the time of the legendary Rurik...
So, one of my two predictions about the consequences of Putin’s chatter came true - terrorists began to actively stab the Russian Aerospace Forces in the back, using guerrilla techniques.
Have you forgotten what was discussed in the second? I remind those who have forgotten or don’t know: Putin’s decision to open air travel to Egypt will most likely lead to a new terrorist act...
God forbid, of course! I sincerely wish this didn't happen. But, in order for this not to happen, YOU DO NOT NEED TO PUT YOUR HEAD INTO THE LOOP OF YOUR WILL.
The ashes of those killed over Sinai still knock on our hearts!
What are you doing weird, Vladimir Vladimirovich? Come to your senses before it's too late...
ISIS* is a terrorist organization banned in Russia
